A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
